A 30-Rider Breakaway, American Stars, and the Heat That Will Haunt This Race
Stage 4 of the Tour de France wasn't supposed to be exciting. A large breakaway goes, somebody random wins, nothing happens to the GC. That was the script. But what actually happened was far more interesting, with American riders delivering incredible performances, a small Norwegian team taking the yellow jersey, and a cancer survivor wearing the most prestigious jersey in cycling.
Let me break down what made today so special.
The Shocking Breakaway
When a 30 plus rider breakaway went away on Day 4 of the Tour de France, it looked like something you'd normally see at the end of the race in the Massif Central. A massive gap. A mid-mountain stage where the breakaway is given free rein. Nothing happens in the GC.
But today was different. The breakaway delivered exactly what the script said, except for one critical difference: the GC got flipped on its head.
We had a sprinter competing for the green jersey make the selection. We had two Americans in the front of the race, both riding incredibly well. We had Uno-X, a small Norwegian team, take the yellow jersey. And we had Torsten Treen, who wore the red jersey in the Vuelta and is a cancer survivor just four years ago, now wearing the yellow jersey.
Could it be better? Honestly, no.
Quinn Simmons' Diamond Legs Performance
Quinn Simmons attacked at kilometer zero. First attack of the day. Finished second on the stage. Worked in the breakaway all day. Looked amazing on the climbs. Worked to keep the pace strong for Mads Pederson.
His legs looked incredible all day. In fact, he looked like he could have soloed away in the last part of the stage if they didn't have Pederson to work for. Exciting to see an American from Durango, Colorado, ride so well at the Tour de France.
To attack at kilometer zero and then back that attack up if it doesn't go the first time, make the 30 rider breakaway, and then work all day in that breakaway at a world championship level is extraordinary. That's Tour de France level performance.
Mads Pederson's Incredible Form
Mads Pederson won the stage, but more importantly, he showed form that's absolutely top notch. The directive from EF Education was clear: we have Mads Pederson here and he's going to win this stage if we can get him over that last climb.
Pederson rode amazing over the Category 2 climb. He was able to stay with the best climbers in that breakaway group, which included guys like Vauquelin from the Inyos team, a rider who finished in the top five at the Tour de France. Pederson dropped that guy on the last climb.
Think about that. This is a climber who has ridden at the Tour before, a proven performer. And Pederson dropped him. His form is extraordinary right now.
What's even more impressive is that Sean Quinn was just 20 seconds out of the yellow jersey coming into today. EF Education made a play for that on the last climb. Quinn attacked himself on the final climb, and Pederson was able to make that group that went over the top.
Quinn Simmons and Vacek paced Pederson back to the leading group, and it looked like about four riders working together. But actually, Sean Quinn got dropped and was with Pederson going over the last summit. That shows just how strong Pederson is. He's obviously going for the green jersey. He looks incredibly fit.
The entire Trek team is going to animate this race. Quinn Simmons has got diamond legs. This team is going to be a factor for the rest of this Tour.
Why Did Such a Big Breakaway Form So Early?
This is highly unusual. A 30 plus rider breakaway going away in the first 17 minutes of the race is not normal. Why did this happen?
First, Trek, EF, Movistar, and a lot of other stage-hunting teams were committed to getting riders in the breakaway from the very first attacks. They all went all in on drilling it. They worked really well together as a cohesive unit because they had teammates on the same mission, working for the same rider to win the stage.
When you have multiple teammates all attacking together, the move goes easily. Everyone believes in it. Everyone works. That's exactly what happened here.
Second, it was incredibly hot. We're only three days into the race and riders are pinned. They're smoked. People are concerned they won't make it through the stage. So a lot of teams and a lot of riders took a more conservative approach than normal. In cooler conditions, there would have been more attacks, more splits, more chase attempts. But the heat changed the calculus.
Visma and UAE tried to get some representation in the move, but they were watching each other, marking one another. The GC teams weren't really represented because they want to be fresh for later in the race. They need to preserve their leaders and their resources for the mountains.
The Reality of Riding a Giant Breakaway
Here's something you don't see on television. When you're in a 33-rider breakaway, it's way more clunky than it looks. Everyone assumes all 33 riders are working together harmoniously. That's not the case at all.
You have some people working. You have other people sitting on. You have people coming up, maybe interrupting the pace, maybe doing a pull too hard, and then falling back. It's not a great experience. You're essentially riding in your own little peloton, except it's broken and unorganized.
That's why when the group hit the climbs, we saw splits happen. The group blew apart. That's why we ended up with just 10 riders on the final climb. The breakaway was never as organized as it looked on television.
The Peloton Hierarchy
One thing that stood out from watching the coverage was the clear hierarchy in the peloton. You had UAE on the front. Trek right behind them. Then Visma. Then Decathlon. Then Red Bull.
This hierarchy doesn't really come out until the second week of the Tour normally. Everyone still believes they're the favorite or should be riding up front because they're only a few seconds back on GC. But here on Day 4, the hierarchy is already established.
You don't really want to ride up there either. It's harder. You take more wind. But there's this funny dynamic that happens where teams try to bamboozle each other out of position.
If there's a climb or a corner and the back comes up, you'll see teams maybe second or third on GC try to flip flop each other and cut in front. It's a game within the game.
I remember Ivan Basso was the master of this. He'd roll up next to you, ask how your family is, and before you finished answering, he and his entire Liquid Gas team would slip into position ahead of you. You'd get completely bamboozled while answering a friendly question.
These dynamics add up over three weeks. Close calls. People asking you about your family and then taking your wheel. Over time, you get irritated. Riders start asking themselves, why is this team in front of me when they're fifth on GC and I'm second?
It's funny to watch on television. It's another thing entirely to experience it for three weeks.
The Heat Will Haunt This Race
The real story from today isn't the breakaway or even the performances. It's the heat and the cumulative fatigue that will impact the rest of this race.
Stage 4 had over 9,000 feet of climbing. Intense racing. Extreme heat all day. These guys burned about 4,000 kilojoules from power output. But then they burned 2,000 plus additional kilojoules from their metabolism. So that's 6,000 total. But wait, their bodies are also spending additional energy, additional calories, keeping themselves cool and dealing with the heat.
That adds up. That takes it out of you. And this is quite different from a typical Tour de France start.
Here's what matters: the energy spent today, riders are really going to have a hard time getting back. Yes, everyone is in the same boat. But the gaps in fitness and gaps in recovery are going to show up over the coming weeks. Gaps in finishing times are going to get bigger.
This race is already shaping up to have a Giro d'Italia feel towards the end. A lot of people are going to be on their hands and knees getting through the hard mountain stages. The energy they spent today is going to compound over the next week.
We're going to see bigger gaps. Fewer finishers. Bigger explosions in the peloton. You have to ask yourself as a race organizer: do you want epic early stages, stronger finishes towards the end, or a death march at the finish?
The Tour is shaping up for a very hard final week.
GC: Nothing Happened, But Everything Was Said
Nothing happened in the GC today. The yellow jersey went to a breakaway rider, as expected.
But Tadej gave away the yellow jersey with a big time gap. That echoes confidence. He is so strong. He is so confident. He's doing contrasting things, keeping everyone guessing just a little bit.
Brace yourself. I think he is going to light this race up as we go forward.
Del Toro looks super good. He looks fresh after the last few days.
But here's the real question: is Jonas going to get second? Is he the second best guy? After what happened yesterday, I'm concerned he's going to have maybe problems as the race goes on. I would not be surprised if Tadej messes with him even more.
I think a lot of Tadej's strategy and what he trained for this Tour de France is revenge on his past performances and on his past setbacks. I think part of that revenge is geared towards Visma and Jonas. I think he might use Del Toro to put that second place in jeopardy, to kind of punish some of their actions last year.
He's essentially saying: you're going to have to fight for second, buddy.
What's Next
The first breakaway stage is done. The heat has taken its toll. The hierarchy in the peloton is established. The cumulative fatigue is starting to build.
Tomorrow should be our first chaotic sprint stage but this time with a very fatigued peloton.
Thanks for reading. Looking forward to tomorrow's stage.
