Amstel Gold: Why Did Pogacar's Attack Come Up Short?
Tadej got beat! Did he beat himself, or was it the doing of the others?
A little of both!
Here are my thoughts.
1. Let instinct change the game plan
Many of the next points I’m going to mention were likely already known to Tadej going into the race, and he probably had a strategy in place to manage them. But the mouthwatering attack from Alaphilippe, which happened right in front of him with 47 km to go, was clearly just impossible to resist.
First off, he probably didn’t expect Julian to attack so strongly. It looked like Tadej was uncomfortable following at first, and he probably interpreted that sensation as being “off” and needing to use it as an opener. But Tadej’s rivals weren’t in position—much like the prior World Championships—and he immediately got a 20-second gap as they scrambled to organize.
I’d guess he initially questioned going all-in that early, but the gap seemed to increase without much effort. That’s when Remco got his teammate to chase, and he used that teammate for 10k. This brought Tadej inside 30k to go, which was likely where he originally planned to attack.
It was here that Remco attacked and applied pressure—forcing Tadej to lift the pace—and this is where the cracks started to show, which I’ll expand on below.
2. Efficiency in the low threshold and high-medium zones
Due to the racing and recovery schedule—San Remo, Flanders, and Roubaix—the specific efficiency in longer threshold and low-threshold efforts hasn’t really been trained or utilized. This is a real thing. In Grand Tours, you often see climbers struggle during the first mountain days after a flat first week. What’s different here is that Tadej’s main competitors (minus Van Aert) have been training specifically for the Ardennes Classics.
One final big thing on this: Tadej’s explosive climbing looked great, and he managed to maintain that gap for nearly 40k. He’s clearly at a very high fitness level overall, but he just needs a bit more specific training to execute his signature long-range, “insane attack” move. Realistically, today’s effort will be a big shock and jumpstart to these zones, and he’ll bounce back well.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he skips Flèche to get some training days in and sharpen these zones for Sunday’s Liège.
3. Fueling
Of course you’re going to say that, Tom. But it’s true—especially because of point #2. Without the normal efficiency, even a normal effort requires more fuel to sustain.
I heard him say something to Remco before the podium about cracking at 15k to go. That statement—and the fact that he lost the lead he held for 40k—suggests he was running low on glycogen.
Finally, if he had actually sat up on his own, you’d expect him to try one of his trademark attacks on the Cauberg right before the finish. Instead, he sat on the wheel and only took short pulls all the way to the sprint.
4. Fatigue
This also plays into point #2. The reality is that Roubaix alone takes most riders weeks to recover from. Stack Flanders on top of that and you’ve got next-level fatigue.
So in the six days between races, Tadej likely focused on physical and mental recovery rather than training to be sharp for Amstel. Even with that, he probably still carried some residual fatigue into the race, which made the final part even harder.
5. Remco
Yes, folks, Remco is at a new level—and he showed it today by chasing down Tadej after overcoming a crash and a hard chase earlier in the race.
He made some tactical mistakes that I believe cost him the win (I will share below), but make no mistake—if Remco hadn’t been in the race, Tadej would have won solo.
To wrap up the Pogacar part: a shoutout to his incredible attitude and perspective.
The second he crossed the line and was beaten, he immediately put his arm around Skjelmose to congratulate him. This shows a side of Tadej that’s truly authentic, and I think it’s part of what allows him to train and race so hard. He genuinely loves the game.
It’s easier to try hard and lose when you respect the game and how it works. Other people challenge you, raise the bar, capitalize on your mistakes, and sometimes beat you. Let it in. Respect it. Use that perspective to grow.
Remco’s poor tactics cost him the win.
Remco had incredible legs and is clearly on another level. He joins the elite club of riders who have chased down and caught Tadej at the end of a major race.
His injury earlier in the season gave him time to train and elevate his form to new heights. But how can the rider with seemingly the best legs in the final 40k—and the best sprint of the 3-rider group—end up finishing last? The answer is clear: poor tactics.
Tactical mistakes:
1. Bad positioning in the key moment
Remco was too far back when Tadej followed Alaphilippe’s attack. Had he been near the front, he likely could’ve gone with them and avoided 30k of chasing. That chase, plus all the additional attacks he made to get away from the group, cost him critical energy.
2. Underestimating Skjelmose
Remco was clearly stronger than Skjelmose and did most of the work. Later, Skjelmose said he asked Remco to ease off on the climbs or he’d get dropped. I understand wanting to keep him around for help on the flats, but Remco ended up doing all the work that brought them to Tadej.
If he had made an effort to drop Skjelmose, he still could’ve caught Tadej—and a two-up finish might’ve gotten Tadej to work more than he did in the end.
3. Not attacking the final Cauberg
Skjelmose was struggling to follow on previous climbs. Tadej was clearly low on fuel. Remco should’ve tested them with a dig on the final Cauberg. If they followed, fine—go to the sprint. But there was a decent chance he could have gone solo.
Of course, he did crash earlier, and that costs you energy both physically and mentally—which he mentioned post-race. Still, he seemed to have the best legs of the three during that final 40k.
Skjelmose: The opportunist who played it perfectly
Skjelmose raced a perfect race and benefitted from the clash-of-the-titans dynamic.
1. He used less energy than the other two favorites. The key here was that he was very strong AND he used less energy than either Tadej and Remco. While he did spend some time off the front like Tadej, Remco quickly swept him up.
2. He showed humility in his struggles. This led Remco to write him off as a threat. I always say, “Everyone loves the weaker rider, so let the other riders know how strong they are and how you are hurting.” By asking Remco to slow down, he stayed in the race and diverted Remco’s attention.
3. He was invisible to the big two. In the final sprint, Remco was locked on Tadej. Tadej was locked on Remco. Neither paid attention to Skjelmose.
Remco kept looking back—but only at Tadej. Tadej bluffed with a standing feint, which triggered Remco to start his sprint early. Tadej then timed his jump to come around, but didn’t anticipate Skjelmose charging up next to him. Once he cleared Remco, Tadej sat down—he was out of gas. Skjelmose had both the momentum and the legs, and he powered past to the line.
A fantastic win for Skjelmose which will lift his confidence to match his form. He has already finished second in Fleche Wallone (to Tadej) so expect him to be contesting the victory on Wednesday!